Cargo theft is measured, and the measurements are not ambiguous. Below is what the two most-cited industry datasets recorded in 2025, and what each figure implies for the way you tender, store, and release freight.
Verisk CargoNet · Overhaul, 2025
Volume is roughly flat. Severity is not. Crews are choosing fewer, larger, better researched targets, which is why the average event now costs more than a quarter of a million dollars.
One stolen load is no longer a nuisance line item. The average event in 2025 cost more than a quarter of a million dollars, a 36 percent jump in twelve months.
| Year | Average loss per event |
|---|---|
| 2023 | $187,895 |
| 2024 | $202,364 |
| 2025 | $273,990 |
Verisk CargoNet
Exposure is not evenly distributed. Two states carry most of it, and three commodity categories absorb nearly half of all recorded theft. If your lanes and your product sit inside those concentrations, an industry average understates your risk.
Two states account for 58 percent of recorded incidents. If your freight runs through California or Texas, your exposure is not average, and neither should your controls be.
| State | Share of US incidents |
|---|---|
| California | 38% |
| Texas | 20% |
| Tennessee | 11% |
| Illinois | 7% |
| Pennsylvania | 7% |
| Georgia | 4% |
| All other states | 13% |
Overhaul
Crews are selective rather than opportunistic. Three categories absorb nearly half of all recorded theft, and the remainder is spread thin across everything else that moves.
| Category | Share of thefts |
|---|---|
| Electronics | 22% |
| Food and drinks | 15% |
| Home and garden | 11% |
| All other categories | 52% |
Overhaul
The categories growing fastest are the ones with liquid resale markets, and the tactic growing fastest requires no force at all.
Theft volume did not rise evenly. Metals and food absorbed most of the increase, and deceptive pickup, where freight is handed to a fraudulent party, grew faster than cargo theft overall.
| Category | Change 2025 vs 2024 |
|---|---|
| Metals | +77% |
| Food and beverage | +47% |
| Deceptive pickup events | +35% |
| All confirmed thefts | +18% |
Verisk CargoNet · Overhaul
Read together, the data describes a shift from opportunistic theft to targeted, research-driven operations. That changes what actually protects you. Perimeter security addresses the tactic that is shrinking. Verification at handoff addresses the one that is growing.
The practical implication is uncomfortable but useful. If your controls were designed around preventing forced entry, they were designed for the previous decade of this problem.
A chain-of-custody audit tells you where your own exposure sits, rather than where the industry average sits. Initial consultations are complimentary and confidential.
