Most companies know they are losing product and do not know what it costs, because the loss is spread across write offs, expedites, penalties, and premiums that never get added up in one place. This puts them in one place, using your numbers.
Drag the sliders or type your own figures straight into the fields. The model uses what you tell it, nothing else, and returns the result as a cost per load so it can be compared against the rest of your freight spend.
Full truckloads or containers your company tenders in a year.
Landed value of the product on a typical trailer.
Full thefts plus loads that arrived materially short. Count what you wrote off, not just what you reported.
Every stolen load costs more than the product. Expedited replacement, lost production time, customer penalties, claim handling, and premium impact. Set this to whatever your finance team can defend.
What you would spend on a chain of custody audit and the rebuild that follows. Scope is quoted after the consultation.
| Line | Formula |
|---|---|
| Freight value moved | Loads per year multiplied by average value per load. |
| Direct product loss | Loads lost or short multiplied by average value per load. |
| Downstream cost | Direct loss multiplied by the downstream multiplier, minus the direct loss. |
| Cost per load | Total annual cost of loss divided by loads shipped per year. |
| Break even | The share of your current annual loss an engagement has to remove before it pays for itself. |
This models what your stated loss rate costs. It does not forecast future events. For reference, the average single cargo theft event in 2025 cost $273,990. Verisk CargoNet
Annual loss totals get argued about. Cost per load does not, because it sits next to every other per load figure your team already manages, and it makes loss comparable to freight rate, packaging, and fuel. When a control adds four dollars a load and removes forty, that decision makes itself.
The downstream multiplier is where most models understate the problem. The stolen product is the smallest line. What follows is expedited replacement at spot rates, production time lost to a rebuild, penalties from a customer whose shelf sat empty, staff hours absorbed by the claim, and the premium at your next renewal.
We will work through your actual loss history, tell you where it is concentrated, and quote the scope from there. Initial consultations are complimentary and confidential.
